Private sector pay growth slows to five-year low
UK wage growth eased to 4.5% between September and November 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics, reflecting a notable slowdown in private sector pay.
Pay in private businesses rose just 3.6%, the lowest rate in five years. Public sector wages increased 7.9%, however, the ONS has said that this was likely due to pay awards being brought forward when compared with the previous year.
The labour market showed further signs of cooling. The number of people on company payrolls fell by 135,000, with the decline concentrated in retail and hospitality.
Youth unemployment for 16-24-year-olds remained elevated at 15.9%, while overall unemployment held at 5.1%, the highest since early 2021.
Are there any takeaways for businesses?
Economists have interpreted slower private sector pay growth as something that will ease inflationary pressures, which may help in further cuts to interest rates.
Slower private sector pay growth suggests that there could be some relief to wage pressures over the next few months, although with an increase to national minimum wage rates coming in April, hiring is unlikely to get cheaper.
The weaker hiring activity by retail and hospitality businesses suggests that consumers are feeling the pinch, which could have implications for sales income for many businesses.
Unregulated Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) agreements will fall under full FCA regulation from 15 July 2026. For the first time, BNPL lenders will need to meet the same expectations as other consumer-credit providers. With almost 11 million UK adults using BNPL in 2024, according to an FCA survey, this is a significant change.
The government has published the draft secondary legislation for the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is due to go live on 1 January 2027. This is an important development for UK businesses importing affected materials.